What EU ETS2 carbon pricing adds to a gas-fired curing oven from 2028

By Mert Aytunur, Adencoat. Published 28 October 2026.

In numbers

ETS2 prices the gas a small coating plant burns from 2028

EU ETS2 is a second emissions trading system for fuel burned in buildings, road transport and what DG CLIMA calls "additional sectors", mainly small industry not covered by the existing EU ETS. A gas-fired cure oven at an EU job coater or fabricator outside the existing system fits that description. The obligation sits upstream: fuel suppliers surrender the allowances, and the cost reaches the coater through the gas price.

The start date moved by one year. The Council gave final approval to the amending act on 5 March 2026 and the text is in the Official Journal, so ETS2 becomes fully operational in 2028. DEHSt, the German emissions trading authority, gives the timetable: auctions from January 2027, and the first surrender, for 2028 emissions, due on 31 May 2029. Pressure for a further delay to 2030 exists; none has been adopted.

The EUR 45 reference and the market stability release shape the carbon price

ETS2 has no hard price cap. It has a release mechanism instead: when the allowance price runs above EUR 45 per tonne, expressed in 2020 prices, extra allowances come out of the market stability reserve to pull the price back. A provisional agreement between the Council and the Parliament on 11 June 2026 doubles that release to 40 million allowances. Final adoption of that agreement had not been confirmed when this post was written.

EUR 45 per tonne is therefore a trigger for extra supply, and the price can sit above it for a time. The figure is also stated in 2020 money; we found no published nominal value for 2028 and do not estimate one. This post works three carbon prices, EUR 45, 68 and 100 per tonne, as a range to test a budget against. None of them is a forecast.

Eurostat H1 2026 prices are the dated baseline for gas and electricity

Eurostat's H1 2026 averages for non-household consumers, excluding VAT and updated on 19 October 2026, are EUR 0.0616 per kWh for gas in band I3 and EUR 0.1800 per kWh for electricity in band ID. Per kWh bought, electricity costs 2.9 times as much as gas. Türkiye's figures are EUR 0.0377 for gas and EUR 0.0833 for electricity, all taxes included.

Outside Europe the inputs are national. In Egypt, Prime Minister's Decree 1306/2026 set the gas price for energy-intensive industry at USD 6.75 per MMBtu from May 2026, about USD 23 per MWh (Egyptian Streets, 5 May 2026). We found no published industrial gas tariff for Morocco.

The 2026 price spike sits on top of these averages. Eurostat notes that H1 2026 contract prices mostly predate the Strait of Hormuz disruption that began on 1 March 2026. The IEA puts Q2 2026 TTF near USD 16 per MBtu, 32 percent up on a year earlier, a larger swing than the carbon effect below. Eurostat's next update is due on 30 October 2026.

ETS2 adds EUR 9 to 20 per MWh of gas at EUR 45 to 100 per tonne

The carbon cost per MWh of gas equals the carbon price multiplied by the emission factor. IPCC 2006 gives 56,100 kg CO2 per TJ for natural gas on a net calorific basis. One TJ is 277.8 MWh, so the factor is 0.202 t CO2 per MWh. Electricity is outside ETS2, so an electric oven carries no direct ETS2 charge on its tariff.

The emission factor is per MWh of net calorific value, and gas is commonly invoiced on gross calorific value. Converting with a factor of 0.9, which is our assumption, the carbon cost per invoiced MWh is about 10 percent lower than the table shows. The ratio column uses electricity at EUR 180 per MWh with no conversion loss.

Worked example on a 60 kW gas box oven at full load

The example prices one hour at full load of the 60 kW box oven from our post on gas and electric curing oven operating cost, where 60 kW is the example useful heat. The 85 percent efficiency is the site's design assumption for indirect gas burners.

Gas variant, one hour at full load: Gas input: 60 kWh / 0.85 = 70.6 kWh Gas cost: 70.6 kWh 0.0616 EUR/kWh = 4.35 EUR CO2 emitted: 0.0706 MWh 0.202 t/MWh = 0.0143 t (14.3 kg) ETS2 cost at EUR 45/t: 0.0143 t 45 = 0.64 EUR ETS2 cost at EUR 100/t: 0.0143 t 100 = 1.43 EUR Gas cost with ETS2: 4.99 to 5.78 EUR per hour

Electric variant, one hour at full load: Electricity input: 60 kWh / 1.00 = 60 kWh Electricity cost: 60 kWh * 0.1800 EUR/kWh = 10.80 EUR per hour

Over 1,000 full-load hours, ETS2 adds 640 to 1,430 EUR to a gas bill of 4,350 EUR, against 10,800 EUR for the electric variant. The ratio of electric to gas cost falls from 2.5 today to between 2.2 and 1.9.

The example assumes the oven runs at its full 60 kW for the whole hour. Heat-up, standby between batches and part-load burner efficiency are left out. The tariffs are EU averages excluding VAT, and a plant's own contract can sit well above or below them. Multiplying a line's own annual gas use in MWh by the per-MWh figures in the table turns them into euros per year.

A job coater in the EU running a gas box oven on one shift asks whether to change to electric heating before 2028. The hourly arithmetic above is worth repeating with the plant's own invoices in place of the Eurostat averages. At the published averages, ETS2 narrows the gap and leaves gas cheaper per kWh of useful heat. What usually decides the case is the electrical service on site and the hours the oven runs.

An aluminium extruder in Egypt or Morocco that exports coated profiles to the EU asks whether ETS2 reaches its cure oven. ETS2 is collected from fuel suppliers inside the EU, so the oven's fuel cost follows the national gas price, in Egypt the Decree 1306/2026 level. The comparison then runs on the local tariff and the annual operating hours.

What this does not tell you

The carbon range ignores national carbon prices that apply before 2028; Germany already prices fuel carbon under its BEHG scheme, which this post does not cover. The final market stability text and the nominal value of the EUR 45 reference in 2028 are open, and the wholesale price after H1 2026 is not in the averages used here. The example also ignores exhaust losses, cold starts and the mass of hangers and trolleys, which the heat balance post and the post on wall losses and heat recovery treat in kWh.

The calculator takes your own tariff

The oven heat load and energy calculator gives the useful heat and the gas and electric cost per batch or per year for your oven. Set the tariffs to custom and enter gas with the carbon charge added: EUR 0.0707 per kWh for the EUR 45 per tonne row, EUR 0.0818 per kWh for the EUR 100 per tonne row, against EUR 0.1800 per kWh for electricity.

Standards and sources

• DG CLIMA, ETS2 page, updated 2 September 2026: scope, upstream obligation, 2028 start.
• Council of the EU press releases, 5 March 2026 (delay to 2028) and 11 June 2026 (market stability release).
• DEHSt, EU ETS 2 outlook, 17 July 2026: auctions and the 31 May 2029 surrender.
• IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 2, Ch. 2: 56,100 kg CO2 per TJ for natural gas.
• Eurostat nrg_pc_203 and nrg_pc_205, H1 2026, updated 19 October 2026.
• IEA Gas Market Report Q3-2026.
• Egyptian Streets, 5 May 2026: Decree 1306/2026.

Questions buyers ask

When does ETS2 start to cost a coating plant money?

ETS2 becomes fully operational in 2028, after the one-year delay approved by the Council on 5 March 2026. Auctions start from January 2027, and fuel suppliers surrender allowances for 2028 emissions by 31 May 2029. The plant sees the cost through its gas price, so the timing depends on the supply contract.

How much does ETS2 add to a gas-fired cure oven?

ETS2 adds about EUR 9.1 per MWh of gas at EUR 45 per tonne and EUR 20.2 per MWh at EUR 100 per tonne, using 0.202 t CO2 per MWh. On the Eurostat H1 2026 gas price of EUR 61.6 per MWh, that is an increase of 15 to 33 percent. Multiply by the oven's annual gas consumption in MWh to get euros per year.

Does ETS2 make an electric oven cheaper to run than a gas oven?

At the EU averages for H1 2026, gas stays cheaper per kWh of useful heat. Electricity at EUR 180 per MWh costs 2.5 times as much as useful heat from gas at 85 percent burner efficiency, and the ratio falls to between 2.2 and 1.9 with ETS2 at EUR 45 to 100 per tonne. A plant's own tariffs can shift that result.

Does ETS2 apply to coating plants in Egypt, Morocco or Türkiye?

ETS2 is collected from fuel suppliers inside the EU, so a cure oven in Egypt, Morocco or Türkiye pays the national gas price. In Egypt that is USD 6.75 per MMBtu for energy-intensive industry from May 2026. In Türkiye, Eurostat lists EUR 0.0377 per kWh, all taxes included.

Collect the last twelve months of gas and electricity invoices and the oven's operating hours, and run them through the calculator with the carbon charge added. Send the result with your part sizes through the contact form, and we size the curing oven on your figures, gas and electric side by side.